The Road to Reliant begins this week with an expected 40 million people pursuing the holy grail of college hoops — picking a perfect bracket.
“Is it possible? Anything is possible,” said Amram Shapiro, founder of the website Book Of Odds.com. “(But) it would be an astonishing feat.”
The odds of creating a perfect NCAA Tournament bracket are, putting it mildly, stacked against you.
DePaul math professor Jeffrey Bergen offers some head-spinning facts:
• The Astros, Rockets and Texans all have a better chance of winning their respective championships in the same season for four straight years.
• It would be easier to predict the winner of every presidential election (Democrat or Republican) though 2260.
• There are more than 147.5 quintillion ways to fill out a bracket with this year’s 68-team field. (But relax! Most big online games are sticking with their Thursday start and 64 teams.)
For the record, there has never been a documented perfect bracket.
Multiple brackets chosen
Two years ago, the closest among more than 4 million entries in ESPN.com’s Tournament Challenge still had five wrong in 63 picks. Last year, a Chicago teenager correctly picked the first two rounds (48 games) in the CBSSports.com bracket challenge; he missed on 10 of the final 15 selections.
“At some point, with all the brackets being filled out on both our site and the competitors, you would think we would get close,” said Jason Waram, the vice president of fantasy and social media for ESPN, which introduced its Tournament Challenge in 1999.
On average, most people will fill out multiple brackets, from two to 60, according to research findings by the Fantasy Sports Trade Association. Most office pools range between $5 and $10 to enter. Many websites offer prizes, ranging from $10,000 by ESPN.com to $1 million by Yahoo and $14 million by Sportsbooks.com, for a perfect bracket.
More money is expected to be wagered on the NCAA Tournament — $12 billion — than the Super Bowl.
“Brackets dominate workplace social circles this time of year,” said Kim Beason, the coordinator of the park and recreation program at the University of Mississippi and a fantasy sports researcher. “People that may not ever come out of their offices and mingle and mix with folks will do so during bracket (contests).”
Lost money and time
An estimated $192 million in lost productivity in American workplaces is expected during the three-week NCAA Tournament, according to an annual report by the Chicago-based outplacement firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas.
The figure takes into account the amount of pre-tournament time spent preparing brackets and an estimated 8.4 million hours of online streaming watched on Thursday and Friday during business hours.
“At first glance, 8.4 million hours of lost productivity seems like it would deliver a crushing blow to the economy,” said chief executive officer John A. Challenger. “However .… the 8.4 million hours lost to March Madness is a relative drop in the bucket, accounting for less than one-tenth of 1 percent of the total hours American workers will put in over the three weeks of the tournament.”
About 33 percent of companies have policies prohibiting workplace gambling, according to a survey by the Society for Human Resource Management released before last year’s Tournament. Yet only 6 percent discipline or terminate wrongdoers.
Illegal — but not enforced
As far as the law, the simple term “office pool” — which insinuates gambling in a public place rather than a private residence — would be classified as illegal, a class C misdemeanor punishable by a fine, according to a spokeswoman for the Harris County District Attorney’s Office.
With so many people participating in NCAA Tournament pools, it’s virtually impossible for law enforcement to monitor the activity, she said.
So there’s one less thing to worry about. And Shapiro, who crunches odds for a living, says a simple, worry-free approach may be the best bracket strategy.
“If you want my real advice,” he said, “it’s just have fun.”
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